sábado, 19 de julio de 2008
jueves, 17 de julio de 2008
Además, para quienes podáis estar interesados en conocer los resultados, os incluyo la nota de prensa (en la que se indica el año de referencia) y la presentación (también aquí) de las balanzas fiscales
viernes, 4 de julio de 2008
Recession explainer: Definitions differ, but it's still a long time since we've seen it
The Guardian, Friday July 4, 2008
Judged by either of the two main definitions, the UK has not suffered from recession in more than a decade and a half. One yardstick is at least two quarters of negative economic growth - and Britain has not had even one three-month period of falling output since 1992.
This unbroken record has allowed Gordon Brown to boast that the economy is enjoying its longest spell of sustained growth since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century, although reliable quarterly data has only been available for around half a century.
Some economists believe this definition of recession is flawed, since an economy would not be in recession if it contracted by 5% in the first quarter, expanded by 0.1% in each of the following two quarters and then contracted again by 5% in the fourth quarter.
It would, however, be deemed to be in recession if it grew by 5% in each of the first and fourth quarters but contracted by 0.1% in each of the second and third quarters. An alternative - and tougher definition - is a full calendar year of negative output. Given the UK economy has grown on average by 2.5% over many decades, it is rare for gross domestic product (GDP) to fall on an annual basis. There have been only five such years since the end of the second world war: 1974, 1975, 1980, 1981 and 1991.
If there is to be a year of falling output in this cycle it will be 2009 rather than 2008.
The United States has its own method of assessing recession, with the National Bureau of Economic Research's business cycle-dating committee making a judgment.
The NBER defines recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales". It has not given a definitive ruling on whether the United States is technically in recession now, but analysts believe that it will give its verdict soon.